The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Surprising Title Charge
It was two months ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.